How the target size is worked out
A video's size is roughly its bitrate multiplied by its length, plus the sound. So when you ask for “under 25 MB”, the assistant works out a bitrate that fits your clip's duration, and the plan shows the size that bitrate should produce. Treat it as an estimate: the finished file can land a little above or below it.
Resolution matters in a different way. At the same bitrate a 720p video is about as large as a 1080p one, but a low bitrate looks cleaner at the smaller size. That is why lowering the resolution often helps when the target is small.